29 posts tagged “video”
It is more possible to become a stable, low-growth market. Therefore, it's no use being hasty.
[+] Will the advent of 3G lead to a reshuffle of WAP market?
Despite continuous setbacks since 2000, telecom operators have never stopped efforts in the mobile Internet market. Theoretically, Moternet, the WAP portal of the largest mobile operator in the world, China Mobile should have the heaviest traffic volume in the world. After all, it has such a huge subscriber base. This, however, is not the reality.
From an iResearch report, Handset-enabled Internet Activities in China in 2008, we can see that Sina, Baidu and Tencent are among the most visited WAP sites in China. There are even a few independent 3G WAP portals. Thanks to their huge PC-based user bases, traditional Internet players seem to have a chance to challenge telecom operators.
Will the advent of 3G lead to a reshuffle of the market? Despite the fierce battle for subscribers, New China Mobile, New China Telecom and New China Unicom have not changed their visions of transforming from "communication service providers" into "information service providers". Key to this effort will be WAP. Will other WAP sites score another goal along with the promotion of 3G?
What we might not have understood correctly is the fact that, with the advent of 3G, the WAP market might have a stable and slow growth, instead of a sweeping revolution. Therefore, it's no use being hasty. It seems that, at the present time, the conditions for a sweeping revolution are not yet in place.
[+] The development of the WAP user base is a long-term process
First, if the 3 new operators do not offer substantially lower WAP rates, there would be no momentum for WAP users to upgrade to 3G, as no major change is expected to the contents offered by WAP sites. There might be more video and mobile TV services, but the key to the acceptance of users is still the fee rate.
The problem is that only telecom operators could decide the fee rates. Other Internet players have no say in it. In view of the current competition picture, the operators are expected to cut 3G WAP fee rates to some extent. But as I said, only substantial cut in voice fee rates could significantly increase the 3G user base, which is essential for a sharp increase in 3G WAP user base.
Secondly, does a substantial increase of 3G user base mean the same for WAP user base? Experience of telecom operators indicates that a large portion of the first 3G mobile phone subscribers would be WAP users of the 2G time. In other words, as a 2G WAP user becomes 3G WAP user, there would be no increase in the total WAP user number in the market.
In the long term, with intensive 3G promotion efforts of operators, all users will eventually give up 2G (whether voluntarily or forced to do so). The process, however, might not be as fast as you and I have thought. Considering the WAP service, which might be offered as an accessory service, the development of the WAP market could be even slower. The key to the speed of growth is the fee rate, not the number of Gs.
[+] The pain in business models
Why have telecom operators not been able to make good WAP sites? Based on my 5 years of experience in an operator, I could see that the root of the problem is their business models. For telecom operators, there's no free service. Every service should generate revenue, which ideally should be collected from end-users with phone bills. One dollar from each user would add up to an amazingly large amount for the hundreds of millions of income.
WAP services are duplicates of those of the Internet, whose basic business model is to offer free service and gain revenue from advertising. Sharp conflicts are expected for the business model transformation, not to mention the difficulty of changing the mindset of staff in a short time. Telecom operators need to regard themselves as media players before establishing ad departments to gain ad revenue. For them, that's too much.
This business model would have nothing to do with the number of Gs. For WAP, if the business model were transformed to that of media in the 2G time, Monternet could have done it very well even without 3G. Now we are back to the basic question: which is scored "better", higher ARPU or advertising income? If the former, there will not be any change.
It does not mean that telecom operators have to give up fee-based music or image download services, which are, in fact, the revenue sources of the traditional Internet companies, too. Yet, if operators cannot think of anything else, their business growth would be limited. For example, Nokia is seeking cooperation with telecom operators even as it has its own advertising network.
Why didn't operators make the proposal first? Because they are still using the old mindsets. Any business you don't do, somebody else in the business chain would do. Nokia Advertising Network is a manifestation of the company's resolution to transit from the manufacturing industry to the service (particularly the Internet service) industry. Do New China Mobile, New China Unicom and New China Telecom have the same resolution?
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Prev : New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (7) The Pricing of 3G Value-added Services
- Today in History
New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (8) WAP Sector Is Slowing Down - 2008/08/10
PDA in Siege (1) The Attack of Notebooks - 2004/08/15
3G value-added services will be cheap, but not so cheap as you have expected.
[+] The pricing of video phone service
As a result of the fierce battle for subscribers between operators, 3G value-added services eventually become a secondary role. In the long-term, however, mobile subscribers will gradually accept the services and use them more than they did in the 2G time. In fact, subscribers first switch to 3G because of attractive voice fee rates. Then they begin to use more value-added services because of faster Internet access speed.
Generally speaking, the most talked-about 3G services include video phone and streaming media. With video phone, you will be able to see the one you are calling. Of course, you can also dial a number to watch a live broadcasting program. Streaming media, on the other hand, enables users to watch audio/video programs via the Internet, mostly by logging onto portals of operators with handsets.
Voice service, video phone and streaming media, how should the three services be appropriately priced? First, as video phone consumes 4 times of bandwidth than general voice calls do, should it be 4 times as expensive? The answer is no, because 4 times is pretty scaring. Most operators offer rates ranging between 1.2 to 1.5 times.
Due to privacy and courtesy concerns, video phone is rarely used. Some people argue that operators should offer lower rates to increase use of video phone services. The fact is, however, low price is probably not sufficient to eliminate the privacy concern. Operators even believe there are reasons you have to use video phone (e.g., your wife requires you to). Is there any other chance of earning such easy money?
[+] The pricing for streaming media
Streaming media service, which enables mobile TV and movies, has been in a dilemma of whether to charge by traffic volume (e.g., RMB X for watching Y mega bytes per month) or by service time (e.g., RMB X for Y hours per month). Eventually, all operators chose service time-based fee rate models.
As most users are still not accustomed to traffic based models, while charging by service time also seems weird (nobody pays TV bills by minutes), the best solution would be monthly packages without time or traffic volume limit. Fearing that users might turn on their handsets 24 hours a day, which would result in considerable waste of wireless network resources, most operators dare not choose the solution.
If they choose to charge by service time, how much per minute would be appropriate? Streaming media service usually consumes twice bandwidth as much as video call does. Nevertheless, I suggest its fee rate be set similar to, or even lower than that of general voice calls. As streaming media service is delivered through IP-based packet-switched network, it could use network resources more effectively than video phone, allowing larger bandwidth for users.
That billing model encourages the use of streaming media to improve the efficiency of the network resources of operators. A challenge for operators is that they have to collect payments for content providers, which would increase the total cost of users. However, that seems to be a problem without solution, because content providers need to be paid, too.
[+] WAP monthly package and the pricing for mobile Internet access
In my view, WAP, the service that has been available since the 2G time is more profitable than mobile TV, which is wildly betted on because of the Olympic Games. Some operators have already offered WAP monthly packages without traffic volume limit. With the advent of 3G, they now face a problem: whether to raise or lower the package rates?
As the costs of operators are based on traffic volumes and 3G, with higher speed, will generate far larger WAP volumes than 2G, maintaining the monthly packages does not seem to be a good deal. However, in order to encourage 3G subscribers to use WAP services, it makes no sense to raise the price. But operators do not want to cut price. Eventually, the fee rates are usually kept at the same level of the 2G services.
As to the monthly mobile Internet access packages (via computers) for current China Unicom's CDMA network, no substantial change is expected because the speed of 3G service remains low (384k for WCDMA). However, as 3G has just been launched in mainland China, it would be well equivalent to the level of 3.5G (HSDPA) right from the beginning. As a result, the fee charging model would change.
For example, there might be packages of RMB X/month for the speed of 128k and RMB Y/month for 256k. Such a pricing model is similar to that of ADSL. Theoretically, the peak rate of HSDPA could be up to 14.4M (it is reported that 3.6M Internet access services would be available soon in Taiwan). Therefore, it is possible to introduce different fee rates for different speed.
[+] The fee rate of value-added services is not the key to attract subscribers
Why operators are so reluctant to cut fee rates of 3G value-added services? Because in the fight for subscribers, they have already cut prices of general voice calls. How do they compensate the loss? Through the above value-added services, of course. Will the value-added service fee rate level affect their subscriber base? Basically not. Then why not setting the fee rates a little bit higher?
Many consumers would consider switching to operators who offer lower voice rates, not the one who offer lower value-added service fee rates. The pricing of value-added service is not the key for operators to attract subscribers. With this user experience and such a mindset of operators, 3G value-added services will be cheap, but not so cheap as you have expected.
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Prev : New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (6) Insight into 3G Price War in Taiwan
Next : New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (8) WAP Sector Is Slowing Down
- Today in History
New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (7) The Pricing of 3G Value-added Services - 2008/07/27
New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (6) Insight into 3G Price War in Taiwan - 2008/07/20
From Idea to Business (2) How to Estimate Your Income and Cost? - 2007/07/22
New Era of Online Advertising (2) from Exposure to Deal - 2006/07/23
Ultimate Mobile Device (5) Universal User Experience - 2005/07/24
There is only one price killer in the market.
[+] New China Unicom has had a good start
Through the restructuring, China Unicom finally is able to get rid of its long-time burden, the CDMA network. With both the GSM network and the CDMA network, it has had troubles in operating costs and branding. Even its dual-mode phones, which boasts "duel network standby" arouses skeptics among the consumers. If one network is good enough, why should I have two networks?
In fact, for operators, upgrading either CDMA or GSM to 3G would be easier and more cost-effective than building a TD-SCDMA network from scratch. Particularly, operators of the first two modes around the world have mature experience in business operations, the key is to make oneself focused on one thing. In terms of the extent of easiness for upgrading to 3G, getting rid of either the GSM network or the CDMA network would be an intelligent choice.
According to the latest data, as of June, 2008, China Unicom had 120 million GSM subscribers, and a much smaller CDMA user base: only 40 million. For the post-restructuring New China Unicom, which is posed for the 3G market, getting rid of the CDMA network is not a big loss anyway. If it were the GSM network that's split off, New China Unicom would have big trouble in attracting new subscribers in the future.
New China Unicom could easily upgrade existing GSM to WCDMA. In addition, there are numerous handset models available around the world for the standard. What's more, today, WCDMA has stepped into 3.5G, i.e., HSDPA, which enables download speed several times faster than the original target of 384k.In Taiwan, operators have even launched HSUPA, which offers faster uploading speed to enable the uploading and sharing of images and videos.
[+] The hot potato of New China Telecom
In spite of a much smaller customer base, the above technical infrastructures and the 120 million GSM subscribers make New China Unicom a respectful rival of New China Mobile, so long as it could develop and execute correct strategies in the 3G time. With TD-SCDMA, New China Mobile would carry the burden for a while, which might be an opportunity for other operators.
New China Telecom, the operator based on the existing China Telecom and part of China Unicom, would have two major assets, i.e., the 40 million CDMA customer base and the 50 million PHS customer base. However, it is a well-known fact that the PHS customer base has been shrinking each year. Incapable of upgrading directly to CDMA, PHS is feeling the pressure of market competition.
In addition, with its original market position as mobile local phone service, PHS has been offered at a low fee rate since its introduction. To persuade existing PHS subscribers to switch to CDMA, New China Telecom will have to compromise its fee rates. In addition, there's the problem of changing PHS phones with more expensive CDMA handsets. Therefore, the compromise would involve not only the fee rates, but also the entire handset packages.
The key is to migrate existing PHS subscribers to CDMA. The problem is: will the discount rate package be available to the existing 40 million CDMA subscribers? If not, won't they be hurt? If yes, doesn't that mean a decrease of revenue from the existing CDMA subscribers? That's the dilemma.
[+] Vying to be the price killer
If New China Telecom hasn't made up its mind and continues to depend on landline-bound packages for building its CDMA customer base, the result won't be surprising, in which case, price cut would be inevitable. In addition, any price killer would have only one chance. If it cannot be a hit in the market in the first time, any follow-on price cut would be useless.
If New China Telecom doesn't use the weapon of "price cut", it will be used by New China Unicom. By then, there would be no way out for New China Telecom, for there could be only one price killer in the market. Maybe we want to ask: "why should both operators use price cut in market competition? Why can't they target at high-end business people instead?"
It depends on a few factors. First, how fast could New China Mobile launch its TD-SCDMA services? With the leading-edge brand of New China Mobile in services targeted at business people, it is not easy for the other two operators to compete. The only chance for them would be to build their own networks fast enough to seize the business people market before the launch of TD-SCDMA by New China Mobile.
Second, it is impossible to beat New China Mobile's brand among the business people in a short period of time. Sooner or later, TD-SCDMA would catch up. Therefore, for New China Telecom and New China Unicom, price cut is only a matter of time. Particularly, if New China Telecom falls behind New China Unicom in offering a price cut, it would be difficult to launch follow-on marketing programs. Since a price cut is inevitable, why not taking it up earlier as a weapon?
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Prev : New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (2) Opportunities and Burdens for New China Mobile
- Today in History
New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (3) Who's Gonna Be the Price Killer? - 2008/06/29
New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (2) Opportunities and Burdens for New China Mobile - 2008/06/22
Web 2.0 Think Again (5) Unearth the Value of "People" - 2007/06/24
Ultimate Mobile Device (2) Competition of Handheld Game Console - 2005/06/26
Would existing GSM subscribers be its assets or liabilities?
[+] New China Mobile as the forerunner
In a winner-takes-all market, the forerunner would have considerable leading edge. The New China Mobile with its TD-SCDMA, the New China Unicom with its WCDMA and the new China Telecom with its CDMA2000, which is going to be the forerunner? The bargaining for mergers between operators will last for some time, but the one who completes the merger first might not end up being the forerunner.
Yesterday, I was surprised to see a 3G ad of China Mobile on a Focus Media LCD in an office building in Shanghai. The ad has two implications: 1) 3G video phone is really cool; and 2) at the end of the ad, it is mentioned that TD-SCDMA is being tested, implying that it will be launched soon. The ad indicates that China Mobile is taking the lead.
The ad gives me a few inspirations. First, telecom operators around the world have a common idea in mind when they launch their 3G services: "video phone is a selling point." It seems that Chinese operators are no difference (but they do not know, as a matter of fact, consumers resist the service). The 3G war once waged among telecom operators in Taiwan seems to be about to start once again in the mainland.
Second, it seems that TD-SCDMA would be the last 3G version worldwide. Other versions, including WCDMA and CDMA2000, have been in commercial operation for years and very mature by now. The 3G ad of China Mobile seems to be a forerunner. However, when they could introduce compelling TD-SCDMA offerings is another thing.
[+] New China Mobile faces the same challenges that Hutchison once did
Hutchison is the 3G forerunner worldwide. When Mr. Li Ka-shing tried to develop Three, the telecom operator in Europe, he encountered a lot of challenges from the very beginning. First, with only 3 cell phone models, Three offered consumers very limited choices. We have to admit that consumers need very simple reasons to buy things. Cell phones with appealing appearances are a big reason for switching to 3G. Limited choices would affect sales.
In addition, its initial market positioning toward business people was another problem. Among the 3 models, one was focused on the video phone function, and another one on the email feature. While capable of satisfying some of the requirements, these phones ignored the most fundamental requirement of the business people "making phone calls successfully". As a new entrant, WCDMA had only limited coverage. That means there were a lot of places where its signals could not reach.
In addition to the coverage of signals, there was also the problem of the compatibility between cell phones and telecom networks. Although both telecom equipment suppliers and cell phone manufacturers complied with standards, it was the first time for the two to collide head on in the business environment. Three's cell phone supplier NEC sent a team to Europe dedicatedly to assist Three to adjust the cell phones in line with the 3G networks.
The clumsy process resulted in customer complaints and damage to the Three brand. As TD-SCDMA has been away from the public sight before, its business operation ability is much doubted. Assuming the mission of promoting the Chinese standard, New China Mobile might become the last operator to launch 3G. Therefore, it is necessary to learn from existing experience and lessons, so as to avoid mistakes of other operators.
[+] Would existing GSM subscribers be its assets or liabilities?
At the new start line, do the 3 operators each carry a burden on its back? The GSM customer base of New China Mobile is both an asset and a liability. It is an asset because New China Mobile could attract those with higher value among the existing customers to become its 3G subscribers. New China Mobile has undoubted edge to promote 3G at its own existing outlets.
On the other hand, it is a liability because discounted rates will have to be offered to attract existing subscribers to use 3G services. Of course, it would be better to attract subscribers of other operators. However, if its 3G subscribers are derived from the existing GSM customer base, the total revenue would decrease. In general, with the launch of 3G, the operator would earn less, instead of more.
In summary, New China Mobile would face 3 challenges: 1) how to attract more cell phone manufacturers to make TD-SCDMA phones, ideally with enough models to cover different price levels; 2) how to maintain the existing GSM rates while attracting more users of 3G; 3) how to ensure the quality of 3G calls, i.e., how to ensure the roaming of the calls to its GSM network in areas beyond the reach of TD-SCDMA signals.
Appealing as they are, other value-added services, such as mobile Internet, won't be available before overcoming the above challenges. The much hated video phone might be only a selling point for advertising. At the late stage of the 3G war, operators around the world are no longer boasting about their value-added services. Instead, they begin to focus on voice fee rate discounts.
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Prev : New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (1) Winner Takes All Next : New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (3) Who's Gonna Be the Price Killer?
- Today in History
New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (3) Who's Gonna Be the Price Killer? - 2008/06/29
New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (2) Opportunities and Burdens for New China Mobile - 2008/06/22
Web 2.0 Think Again (5) Unearth the Value of "People" - 2007/06/24
Ultimate Mobile Device (2) Competition of Handheld Game Console - 2005/06/26
There might be 2 big and 1 small, or 1 big and 2 small operators.
[+] 3G might have 3 versions.
On May 24, 2008, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China jointly published Notice on Deepening Telecom Structural Reform. The hottest topic it brought was the restructuring of the nation's telecom industry. The notice announced the attitude of the Chinese government toward 3G. For the operators, any action is better than no action at all.
In China, 3G is no longer a matter of "to have or not to have". Rather, it's about making sure to build it first and seeing how to do it next. The latest round of restructuring highlights the support of the government to the Chinese version of 3G: TD-SCDMA. Prior to that, there were many critics towards 3G and even those arguing for a direct leap to 4G. Now, none of these matters. The operators are posed for a massive merger. Following that would be the issuance of 3G licenses and a new round of infrastructure development. Then, 3G comes.
As a pioneer with 4 years of experience in 3G operation, I have written a lot about the new landscape in the 3G market. As a matter of fact, with the delay of 3G license issuance, Chinese telecom operators have the chance to learn the 3G operation experience from their international peers. As a result, the expectation for 3G, which was once irrationally eager, is getting gradually rational.
The restructuring will turn the operators into 3 powers: 1) China Mobile + China Tietong, let's call it "New China Mobile" for the time being; 2) China Unicom's GSM Network + China Netcom, "New China Unicom"; and 3) China Telecom + China Unicom's CDMA Network + China Satcom, "New China Telecom". Specifically New China Mobile is expected to adopt TD-SCDMA as its 3G version, while New China Unicom will adopt WCDMA and New China Telecom CDMA2000.
[+] Subscribers face bigger barriers for changing network in the 3G time
The restructuring plan seems to have taken care of the interest of each party and each 3G standard fairly. Ideally, a tri-player market structure would facilitate competition and benefit consumers eventually. The fact is, however, to facilitate real market competition, the 3 new operators should use the same version for 3G, for example, TD-SCDMA or WCDMA.
Consumers have to buy a 3G cell phone to be able to use 3G services. Think about this: a consumer who has a New China Unicom's 3G cell phone wishes to switch to the 3G network of New China Mobile. What he needs do is just change his USIM card, instead of buying a new cell phone. If such an easy thing occurs frequently, the operators will have to figure out better ways to cater for their customers, and preventing them from changing network.
Now a subscriber of New China Mobile has a 3G, TD-SCDMA cell phone, and wishes to switch to New China Unicom. The problem is New China Unicom's 3G version is WCDMA. So he has to buy a new cell phone, which is by no means easy. With more functions than 2G devices, 3G phones will not be cheap. The consumer begins to hesitate.
As it is now definite that the 3 new operators will get 3 different 3G licenses, this is sure to happen. To a large extent, it has decided the landscape in the future market: the one who builds its customer base first is expected to retain the customers for a considerably long period of time. No one who has spent so much on a 3G cell phone would so casually switch a network in the immediate future.
[+] Customer base building: winner takes it all
One of the most attractive aspects about 3G is the video phone. Being able to see the person at the other end of the call is a feature that people both love and hate (and that accounts for why it has not been popular anywhere in the world). With the existence of different versions, a person with a WCDMA phone will not be able to call someone with a CDMA 2000 phone. The attractive aspect of 3G, it seems, is not so attractive.
For operators, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. If the new operators could persuade lovers (or mothers and sons) to buy their 3G phones (for video phone communication) at the same time, subscribers would increase by couple. For both parties of a call, no barrier exists for using 3G phones of the same spec to make video phone calls.
The above observation has drastically increased the possibility of "winner takes all" in China's 3G market. The one who builds up its customer base first would establish a leading edge. It was the same situation that once occurred as the result of the competition between China Mobile and China Unicom's CDMA Network. The difference is the new landscape brings everybody back to the start line again. At least it gives us new expectations.
If the 3 new operators end up being equal rivals, it would be the consumers who eventually benefit most. Although under the protection of different versions of 3G, changing network is difficult. There would be a landscape of competition between equally powerful players. However, if the tri-party balance is disturbed, there might be 2 big and 1 small, or 1 big and two small operators.
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Prev : Glimpse into Profit Model of SNS-based Advertising Next : New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (2) Opportunities and Burdens for New China Mobile
- Today in History
New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (1) Winner Takes All - 2008/06/08
Web 2.0 Think Again (3) A Reason to "accost" Someone Online - 2007/06/03
Viral marketing will be the key word for marketing in the Web 2.0 time.
[+]The history of SNS
Last month, AOL's purchasd Bebo, the largest social networking site in Britain, for USD 850 million in cash. That once again highlighted the value of SNS (Social Networking Service). In the United States, Bebo is the No.3 social networking site, behind MySpace and Facebook, with more than 40 million users around the world.
Further back, News Corp acquired MySpace with USD 580 million in 2005; Microsoft paid USD 240 million for merely 1.6% stakes in Facebook. The first deal seems to be too hasty for MySpace and too juicy for News Corp. What, indeed, is the most attractive aspect about SNS to investors?
SNS is really a confusing concept when mentioned together with dating sites, community sites or Blog. Even SNS operators do not view themselves as dating sites, community sites or Blog sites. While those sites have been in place since the Web 1.0 time, or at least the end of that time, SNS focuses on inter-personal relations, and therefore is a mixture of all above.
Finally, it seems that only ambiguous terms such as "personal space" could differentiate SNS from those traditional concepts. In terms of functionality, SNS enables blog, photo album, friends, community (or group) as basic functions. With the intentional guide of the operators, users could visit the blogs and photo albums of others, eventually activating the social networking function.
In terms of social networking behavior, SNS depends on the migration of offline personal relations to online platforms to combine with those of others to build a larger relation network. While using the service primarily to interact with acquaintances, users might meet strangers for deeper communication intentionally or unintentionally, resulting in larger social communities. Hence, interpersonal relations could be maintained by paying attention to the activities of each other.
[+]How to convert page views into revenue
With more than 40 million users around the world, Bebo is worth USD 850 million. In China, the largest social networking sites, e.g., Tecent Q Zone and 51.com, have more than 100 million users, yet none is deemed to be worth that much. What, indeed, is the commercial value of the social networking sites? At the present time, it seems, the value lies primarily in being purchased.
Thanks to the high interactivity among its users, social networking sites have far more page views than conventional portals. What's more, each user would keep an eye on the presence of his/her friends, resulting in a much longer average online time. Many SNS users log onto the site as soon as they get off work/class, and remain connected until they go to sleep. How to convert the addiction into revenue?
There are 3 possible ways: 1) through Internet advertising; 2) by providing users with fee-based value-added services; 3) by offering e-commerce services in the communities and collecting commissions from transactions. In the foreseeable future, any social networking site is expected to reap revenue through all of these 3 approaches. The only difference lies in the revenue proportion because of different primary users of each SNS site
One of the most distinct features of SNS is its distribution by word-of-mouth. An article by a common person on MySpace or Facebook would get widely spread through his friends, or friends of friends. Such effect is what advertisers have been dreaming for, as distribution by word-of-mouth is the most cost-effective approach.
In the Web 1.0 time, however, this kind of viral marketing was only a result of sheer luck, rather than deliberate planning. Without a platform to operate on, most advertisers had to pay for the views of their ads, allowing their budgets to be washed away by the visit traffic of the portals. While the focus of Internet advertising in Web 1.0 time was target advertising, it would be viral advertising enabled by SNS in the Web 2.0 time.
At the 2008 Annual Conference for the New Economy hosted by iResearch, I gave a speech titled "The Key Word for Marketing in Web 2.0: Viral marketing". You can find and watch the video at: http://v.iresearch.cn/data/20080425/79812.shtml
[+]Impacting the traditional Internet advertising model
However, the business model has trouble facing advertisers, who generally accept it as a cost-effective approach. For example, one million clicks at a portal or one million users' interaction at a social networking platform, which one do you prefer? For online advertisers, the answer is the latter. The question is, however, how do you charge them for the one million users' interaction?
Currently, SNS is still not able to compete with portals by means of CPM or CPC. With surprisingly good results but no billing method available for SNS, there has appeared a weird phenomenon of "free interaction for ad exposure or clicks purchased". Unable to generate income from its most valuable part, SNS is not yet ready to compete with portals for users by means of CPC.
For advertisers, word-of-mouth-based distribution is the most cost-effective marketing method, as well as one of the reasons for them to move their budgets from portals to SNS. In addition, there's not yet a unified standard in the industry for billing by results. An event might have one million participants, however the extent of involvement varies substantially. There is not a simple and intuitive measurement like CPM or CPC.
Currently, advertisers are still testing SNS marketing, while SNS operators are exploring new billing methods. Therefore, there's a huge potential. Eventually, it becomes a process of negotiation between sales reps and advertisers, and the final result depends on who is going to convince whom. The criteria for advertising effect in the Web 1.0 time is no longer able to keep up with the market changes, but the Web 2.0 criteria are yet to be developed.
Viral marketing will be the key word for marketing in the Web 2.0 time, as SNS will become a platform enabling word-of-mouth-based distribution among advertisers. Share and recommendation by friends would enable higher market awareness and better marketing effect. What we don't have yet is a set of criteria to measure the marketing result, as CPM and CPC, which derived from traditional media, are obviously out-of-date.
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Prev : Initial Experience of Widget's Profit Model
- Today in History
Glimpse into Profit Model of SNS-based Advertising - 2008/05/11
3G Time Comes (8) Who Are First Users of 3G? - 2003/05/18
If so, telecom operators would be shut out of the mobile TV market.
[+] The past experience of cell phone manufacturers
From the tide of WAP-based Internet accessing in 2000 to the crazy bid for 3G licenses, and then to the bet on MMS for promoting sales of camera phones and music phones that enable music downloading, and finally to 3G phones with audio/video services, cell phone manufacturers have had thrilling experiences over the years.
The world cell phone market started to show signs of saturation in 2000. To maintain their growth, manufacturers had to motivate consumers to replace their phones with newer products. All of the thrilling experiences in the past 7 years seem to be a quest for what really are the selling points. Fortunately, the result so far has been satisfactory.
In summary, there are a few observations:
1)Mobile Internet is a hard-to-handle concept. The key is consumers tend to compare their expectation for mobile Internet with their PC-based Internet experience, which, in most cases, ends up in disappointment, as cell phones are not so easy to handle as PCs. Mobile Internet has been successful in Japan, only because of the low PC penetration rate there.
2)Telecom operators wish that new cell phones be bound with particular services, so that they could benefit from their sales, instead of being un-paid sales reps of the manufacturers. However, it turns out that consumers buy camera phone only because they can use it to take pictures, and anyone seldom uses MMS service.
3) There's no concern for the shortage of content accessing channels. Despite the hot sale of music phones bound with download service offered by telecom operators, most users choose to transmit music from their computers to cell phones, instead of downloading them from the WAP portal provided by telecom operators. Although it is more troublesome, but it is free.
4)3G audio/video services, including IP-based audio/video streaming and video phone, have not brought satisfactory user experience. It is a very simple concept to allow both parties of a phone call to see each other. However, due to privacy concerns, it has not been able to become a killer application.
[+] Telecom operators might be ignored
With the above experience, cell phone manufacturers finally realized that their business is to make and sell handsets. The simpler their products are the better. There's nothing simpler than the concept of mobile TV.
Consumers no longer have to bother whether the TV programs are downloaded from the Internet, nor cell phone manufacturers to care about whether their phones are bound with particular services offered by telecom operators, so long as they free themselves from the troublesome 3G audio/video experience.
In fact, a hi-tech company in mainland China has developed a sort of chip, which can be built in cell phones to receive traditional analog TV signals. In other words, with such a chip, you will be able to watch wireless channel with your cell phone, regardless of its specification or standard.
The only shortcomings are the mobility and fidelity. As analog TV signals are not intended for mobile environments, the fidelity cannot be compared with that of digital programs of mobile TV. However, it would be good for some people, if the programs are played on small-screen cell phones.
In most cases, however, people watch mobile TV on static environments, e.g., bus or subway stations, or in offices. It explains a fact that cell phone manufacturers will be able to sell their products without binding themselves with telecom operators.
The only thing that those manufacturers have to worry about is where programs would be, once new standard-based mobile TV is launched? Will telecom operators become content aggregators as we discussed in the previous section? If not, they'd better establish connections with content providers right away.
[+] Charging or not, it's a matter about the structure of the industry
The high production costs of movie/TV programs turn out to be a big obstacle for traditional value-added service providers to produce contents themselves. Imaginably, a big part of contents for mobile TV will come from traditional TV stations.
An interesting cooperation mode is that after consumers buy a mobile TV-enabling cell phone, they will get a set of passwords from TV program providers. Upon activation, the cell phone will be bound with the passwords to enable watching programs. The fee is charged each month through the phone bill from telecom operators.
That mode is designed for charging fees. If mobile TV programs are offered for free, and program providers depend on ads for their incomes, the passwords and the additional lines in the phone bills of telecom operators would be unnecessary. If so, telecom operators would be shut out of the mobile TV market.
With regard to the mobile TV services, the only way for telecom operators to gain the favor of cell phone manufacturers is to persuade content providers to charge fees, in which case, they would become the largest content aggregators and channels for charging fees. Otherwise, they would be easily abandoned in the game.
In addition to traditional TV stations, will website operators (e.g. Yahoo! and Google), which are gaining influence in the mobile Internet sector be able to get a share in the market? Those players do not have program-producing ability themselves. However, through audio/video content sharing, they will have some opportunities.
Audio/video content sharing sites, such as YouTube, has a lot of interesting programs. In spite of the low fidelity (as most programs are produced by non-professionals, after all), such programs might be good enough for cell phone-sized screens.
Currently, the mobile TV market is still a virgin land for a lot of players, including telecom operators, cell phone manufacturers, traditional TV media and emerging Internet media. The future will be interesting and full of expectations. Eventually the biggest winner will be consumers. The distribution of audio/video contents will be fast and convenient as never seen before.
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Prev : Mobile TV Market (2) the Subtle Role of Telecom Operators
- Today in History
Mobile TV Market (3) Terminal Manufacturers & Content Providers - 2007/12/02
Great Future of Wireless Broadband (4) WiMax, 3G and 4G - 2006/12/03
Internet and Books (1) Dilemma of Online Publishing - 2005/12/04
VoIP (2) Who Depends on Whom - 2004/12/05
VoIP Gives out the First Cry - 2003/12/07
"Killing time" is the core for the development of mobile TV.
[+] Consumers are spending less time watching TV day by day.
Being optimistic about the mobile TV market, chip makers, cell phone manufacturers, telecom operators, media operators and value-added content providers have been making preparations in advance. However, is mobile TV really what consumers want? An unspoken doubt is: will anyone really watch TV on the go?
First of all, a trend is crystal clear. Consumers are spending less time watching TV through TV sets. Statistics show that at least in mainland China and Taiwan, the number of people surfing Internet after 8 p.m. at night are increasing steadily, so is the time spent.
Each person has only limited hours in a day. As more and more people choose to spend their off hours in front of computer screens, the TV audience group would diminish. IPTV has not been successful, largely because it is still trying to bring people back in front of TV screens, ignoring the fact that nowadays people hardly watch TV anymore.
The correct way to attract today's TV audience is to move audio or TV programs onto the screen of computers and cell phones. However, the decrease of the time for watching TV and the increase for using computers do not mean that the hours spent on watching cell phone screens would increase.
Here we have two questions to think about: 1) Consumers' hours on the go are fixed (on their way to work/home, or weekend outdoor trips, etc.), so what are their requirements for TV programs during those hours? 2) Is it possible to stimulate the enthusiasm of consumers for mobile TV even in room?
Will consumers buy if we successfully address the user experience challenges for watching video programs on 3G cell phones, and enable press-and-play, fast and effective channel switching and easy, simple billing?
[+] "Killing time" is the core for the development of mobile TV.
Product managers of mobile TV programs might have been racking their brains for clues about consumer requirements. The fact is they don't have to. What consumers want is just to kill time. It would be so boring at bus or subway stations that consumers would like to have something to watch; they may just want to snatch a little rest during busy office hours to steal a look at the cell phone, or they want to take a look at some important news.
Killing time, by all means, is the most critical application of mobile TV. There's no need for complicated interaction programs. Previously, 3G cell phone-base audio/video programs were so troublesome to operate that the "interaction" eventually turned "killing time" into "killed by time".
"Killing time" is also the key to mobile TV billing. One simple question: how much are you willing to pay for killing time? Currently in Taiwan, cable TV bills are about NTD 600 per month. How much, then, is reasonable for mobile TV? 200? Or 100?
DVB-H-based mobile TV offers one-way broadcasted digital programs, which, in theory, don't have to be received only with cell phones. Special terminal devices would be developed in the future for receiving such wireless digital programs. And there might be USB terminals for computers, too.
If digital TV itself is offered for free, there's no need to bother with which terminal device to use (ideally, of course, it's more convenient to be built in cell phones). In view of the current situation, however, monthly billing modes such as those adopted by the cable TV sector will be considered by operators. Therefore, integrating the fee into cell phone bills seems to be a natural choice.
If so, telecom operators would be put into a very subtle position. They might have nothing to do with mobile TV program provider, or become just a billing solution provider for the later, or even play a role similar to cable TV system operators.
[+] The subtle position of telecom operators in the mobile TV industry
In the first case, where telecom operators have nothing to do with digital TV content providers. TV-enabling cell phones bought by consumers (or other terminal devices) will be able to receive TV programs by design. If the programs need charges, consumers can make payment to TV program provider directly to get user IDs.
To get a simpler picture, just imagine binding a cell phone with a digital TV terminal. Each device functions independently without the interference of the other. If TV program providers want to charge the users, they could choose a number of channels, but would have to print and send the bills themselves.
Program providers can also choose to cooperate with telecom operators, if they do not want such troubles. That leads us to the second case: fee collection through cell phone bills. A more deep cooperation model could make interactive programs together with mobile operators and enable real-time program balloting through GPRS.
Trouble, however, is at door. There would be numerous program providers and TV channels. Say, there might be 5, and a consumer could choose to pay one for the program he watches, but he would not be able to afford all 5 if he wants to watch them all.
Generally speaking, that is not good news to the mobile TV sector. The real solution to maximize the interest of program providers is to build a single platform to enable free switching of channels. Yes, there are always competitions. However, if competitions lead to obstacles for consumers, that's no good to anyone.
More over, consumers have been accustomed to the monthly billing mode of one package for watching over 100 channels, which will not change in a short time. Therefore, a player capable of integrating all programs, which is similar to a cable TV system operator, is highly expected. Who will assume this role? It seems to be telecom operators.
That turns out to be the third case. However, everybody wants to dominate. The TV industry does not want their channels to be controlled by others, while the telecom industry will not give up the opportunity of entering the media market. Ironically, the fate of this scenario depends on whether mobile TV is fee-based or not.
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Prev : Mobile TV Market (1) Cell Phone plus TV, the Dream of Everybody Next : Mobile TV Market (3) Terminal Manufacturers & Content Providers
- Today in History
Mobile TV Market (2) the Subtle Role of Telecom Operators - 2007/11/25
Great Future of Wireless Broadband (3) Scarce Resources - 2006/11/26
Google's Choice (2) Lessons for the Software Giant - 2005/11/20
VoIP (1) It's a Fool Not to Make Telecom Money - 2004/11/28
The Web 2.0 websites know more about you than yourself.
[+] You are putting labels on yourself for everyone to see
In the first article of this series, I already mentioned that people are the only thing that Web 2.0 is trying to sell. Yet how people can become a product for sale, or, to put it in a simpler way, how information about people can produce values, which ultimately can be attached with a price?
When we realize that the core of Web 2.0 services is relation building, the way we describe people will become more diversified. For example, you may be asked to provide information such as sex, age, residence area or even annual income when you register at some websites.
Such statistics can be employed by website operators in running their businesses. For instance, content websites can analyze the age distribution of their users of different content channels, and e-commerce websites can examine the shopping frequency and expenses of users of different sexes.
Yet very often website operators would feel unsatisfied with the clarity of such information. They would only wish that users would put labels on themselves, declaring: "I am interested in whitening skincare products," "I am a fan of some pop singer," "I am obsessed with Nike sneakers." Nice and clear, and no wild guess any more.
Actually, all of us can find quite a few of these labels to describe ourselves. You can give a try as well, and I assure you that you'll end up with a lot of labels. Yet you probably don't know that these labels are very valuable and craved by many people.
Now you may want to keep these labels to yourself. Unfortunately they are already exposed. I once said that the bookmarks you collected online and the tags you attach to your Blog articles are all descriptions about yourself instead of the "subjects" concerned. You are putting labels on yourself for everyone to see.
[+] Web 2.0 is a huge miner for personal data
Through content and tags contributed by every Web 2.0 user, it is easy to find "potential buyers for Nike sneakers" through preliminary analysis. So what would you think whether sports shoes suppliers would want such information? In a word, Web 2.0 is a huge miner for personal data.
You may say it sounds like Google's Adsense. If a Blog article contains key phrases, say, "sports shoes," then advertisements related to sports shoes would appear at the side. However, Adsense targets at Blog visitors, but what we are talking about here is Bloggers.
It's very likely that you do not know who these Blog visitors are. You show them the advertisement simply because they are viewing an article about sports shoes. Because of this correlation, you can still expect a click-through rate of above 1% over the advertisement.
Yet, the Blogger may have written 10 articles about sports shoes, which can be known from his tags. Why not target on this Blogger as well as many others, or to set up a Nike fan club specifically for this group of Bloggers?
Big Blog service providers have huge database of Blog tags or the like. In fact, you can find similar things in any Web 2.0 services such as sharing of photo albums or bookmarks or social networking websites. The deeper you dig into the data, the higher value you'll find in the data.
In addition to user data statistics in Web 1.0 and tag analysis in Web 2.0, there are still two critical factors that lead us into an even higher level in mining the value of personal data: psychological qualities and behavioral qualities.
[+] Psychological quality indexes will soon play an important role
Birds of a feather flock together. We can tell what kind of person one is from the friends one makes. Furthermore, one's activities in a Web 2.0 website, including the number of Blogs one visits in a month, the number of messages one leaves in those Blogs and the types of tags one uses, also reveal how active one is as well as other psychological qualities.
Therefore, website operator can put a label on you accordingly, like "activity index: 8," "positiveness index: 6," "anxiety index: 3," "pressure index: 10" and so on. Here I have to point out that these psychological quality indexes will soon play an important role in Web 2.0, which develops on the basis of sociology.
Web 2.0 website operators have been managing online communities by predicting how user would interact with each other. Psychological quality indexes however are a different thing. Firstly, it's about how to quantify behaviors; secondly it needs to employ sociology to, for instance, define anxiety index.
Finally, it requires a brand new algorithm. In other words, the PageRank algorithm currently applied in search engines (to generate the importance index of a web page) can not be used to calculate complex psychological and behavioral qualities of people.
Why research on this subject? One reason is to provide a superior guidance for promoting user interaction in Web 2.0 communities; the other is to enable better targeted advertising. For example, users of a high pressure index may be a good target for "relaxing music."
[+] High precision marketing enabled by people search engines
All the top Internet companies in the world have noticed this development, but how to address it is a question. The most challenging part is the huge quantity - we are talking about tagging 100 million users with their psychological qualities and analyzing these tags. How many servers will be required to run the calculation?
Before there is any technical breakthrough, we've seen some Internet companies make their move by adopting the simplest yet most practical solution - the people search engine I mentioned earlier. Among them, Ucloo.com, the only one of the kind in China, has been running for almost three years.
The founder of Ucloo.com set up this technology-centric company because he sees the value of personal data. The company uses a program to search through web pages, collect personal data scattered everywhere and sort out the data belong to the same person.
Did you post messages on some forums? Was your name on some university recruits lists before? Have you left your mobile number or bank account number at action websites? Although you are anonymous, Ucloo.com can somehow figure out that these sets of data all refer to you.
Data such as companies you worked for, schools you studied at, classmates and colleagues you've had, stars you like, children, properties and so on, would all be collected under your name. According to the data you have made public online, Ucloo.com has put various labels on you all over.
Ucloo.com does not sell data; instead it uses data as the basis for advertising delivery. For example, if some advertiser wishes to deliver advertisements to young college grads, Ucloo.com can identify this group of targets and deliver advertisement. It has been proven that the response rate of Ucloo.com is much higher than that of traditional online advertisement.
[+] Privacy concern vs. desire to peek
People search engines have been a reality for years, with at least ten of them. Every one of them is making profits except for Spock.com, which has got funded by venture capital since last year. In addition to language, the biggest difference between Spock.com and Ucloo.com is where they think the data should come from.
Spock.com requires users to register and at the same time provide information of your account names and passwords at MSN, Yahoo!, MySpace, Facebook, Friendster and other social networking websites. Its intention is to associate these accounts and consolidate the data that belongs to you.
I was very hesitant when registering at that website and wondered why I should provide all this information. Spock.com asked me my email accounts at Hotmail, Gmail and Yahoo!, which I thought was outrageous.
On the other hand, Ucloo.com uses search engine technology to look for you, including photos and video files online. It is difficult to say which is better or worse, but apparently, users would feel reluctant to give away their personal data.
Users are very strange: none of them wants to be exposed by people search engine, yet each of them would try to search his name online and see what would come out. (I bet you would go to Ucloo.com to search your name quietly before finishing reading this article.)
Is there any technical obstacle that prevents Google or Microsoft from doing the same thing? In fact anyone with deep pockets can do it. However, there is critical difference between people search engine and PageRank algorithm. Moreover, it has been years since any people search engine started to accumulate personal data. It takes time to catch up.
[+] Summary of the series
The series of "Web 2.0, think again," which one of my good friends described as groundbreaking, has come to a period here. It has been exactly a year since I published the article confessing that I had neglected Web 2.0.
Over the year I have been groping after Web 2.0 and making up for what I had missed. The five articles in the series are the crystallization of my efforts, which I hope you find satisfactory and helpful in pointing out the trend.
Meanwhile I would like pose a question not necessarily related to business: with Web 2.0, the cost of interpersonal communication has been declining, yet are people getting closer to one other? Maybe people are still living within their small circles and, like I said before, getting together sharing feelings with others of similar attributes?
Is the world we know growing more open or closed? Are we getting clearer about ourselves, or quite the opposite? Will there be one day when marketers know better about you than yourself?
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Prev : Web 2.0 Think Again (4) "Private Property" and "Class Inequality" Next : From Idea to Business (1) How to Estimate Your User Number?
- Today in History
Web 2.0 Think Again (5) Unearth the Value of "People" - 2007/06/24
Ultimate Mobile Device (2) Competition of Handheld Game Console - 2005/06/26
Think again on how relations are built and maintained.
[+] Challenges for social networking websites
The only thing that matters in Web 2.0 is relations and the build-up and maintenance of relations. However, to expect that relations will happen just by giving users relation-building tools is going to cause troubles. We need to have good understanding of human nature.
The most striking examples are some social networking (or business networking) websites like Linkist or OpenBC (currently Xing.com). These services, based on the well-known Six Degrees of Separation, are aimed to fulfill the needs of business people to extend their networking.
I know you and you know your friends, and these friends have their own friends. So by following these relation chains, I should need six intermediaries at most to get to know anyone in the world, according to the theory of Six Degrees of Separation.
People who have tried such services may be excited about their ability to help you get in touch with a huge number of strangers, who are your friends' friends, within a short time. However, when the number of people on my contact list of one of these services exceeded 200, I quit it.
A year or so passed, I found that there were only two or three names on my list remained active, and most of them rarely used the service. Undoubtedly, social networking is in great demand for business people. There must be some reason why these people became indifferent to the service.
[+] Think again on how "relations" are built and maintained
Think about your daily business life. You should see that "social networks" are build upon interests, which would normally exist where there are business relations. Take a look at your business cards holder or address book: those you contact most often should very likely be your clients or partners because you have common interests with these people.
Think about the various kinds of business gatherings you've been to. How many business cards you've got there are of any use to you in making business contacts? Some people would spend time and efforts to scan and file business cards (the so-called digital business network management), but at the end of the day the only thing they can do was forward jokes to these people once in a while.
Let's face the reality! When the relations between two persons would not last if they can find no business to do with the other. When accosting somebody, you would need a reason. The biggest problem for social networking websites is users can't find good reasons to start a talk and maintain relations with others.
Business people are very pragmatic. They will not spend time in building connections that are meaningless to them. The people you meet in social networking websites are practically total stranger who do not have any business to do with you, so your relations are doomed to be short-lived. Frankly, business people are already too busy managing their social networks in their off-line life.
Some social networking websites discover that their users have become lukewarm, so they develop tools like social bookmarking, which allows users to submit and digg news articles or videos for others to view and make recommendation. It indeed brings pleasure to some people during their boring working hours, but how much it can help establish relations is a question.
[+] Contact methods, a sure way to relationships?
10 years ago I was as a well-known "social butterfly" flitting from one industry gathering to another exchanging business cards. Now when I attend this kind of event, I would just sit quietly in some corner and leave unnoticed when it's over.
It is of no use even if you get 100 business cards in such circumstances because you don't have any business to do with them. Even if you keep these business cards very carefully and you do make a phone call to one of these names, s/he may never remember where or when s/he has met you. Is this the kind of relations you need?
If you want to meet certain people, you can always find someone to introduce you instead of attempting to meet them in public occasions. On the other hand, those who want to do business with you can always find some way to find you. The only thing that matters is whether there is any business to do or not.
There is also a scenario in such gatherings: you can always see some unimportant people busy exchanging business cards with big shots. Do you know how important people deal with the business cards stuffing into their hands? No, you don't want to know.
What will you do with the business cards of these big shots? Will you forward jokes to them? No. Will you talk about business opportunity worth of some thousand US dollars? No. Will you call him/her for some chitchat? No. Add him/her to your MSN, but are you sure it's not his/her secretary who is replying your message?
[+] Business networking: no business, no relations!
Same things happen on social networking websites where there are people busy in collecting business cards and knowing big shots. To a certain extent, social networking websites are very much like virtual business cards holders - though you may have as many as 700 contacts, none of them is in good use.
The variety of users on the Internet is practically the representation of the scenario you'll bump into in any typical public events in the business world. The kind of social contacts happening in such public occasions are not very helpful in establishing and maintaining relations if there are no business opportunities involved.
Yes, it is a bleak truth. Technology evolves but human nature remains the same. Web 2.0 entrepreneurs may create perfect websites sometimes, but they tend to forget that "Web 2.0 business is driven by human nature,' and all functions need to address to the wants and needs of the humanity.
Presently, social networking websites allow users to categorize and manage their connections, enable them to get in contact with certain persons by means of search functions or though common acquaintances and provide online forums for exchange of opinions. The point is this is never the way business people establish and maintain their relations.
If social networking websites cannot assist users to "establish" and "maintain" relations, and they are but virtual business cards holders with no storage limits. Such contacts are not connections. Our observation is that, for the very pragmatic business people, "no business, no relations!"
[+] Bottlenecks of friends making services
Social networking services can be divided into the following categories - business networking, friends making, interests communities and dating websites. Among these friends making websites may be familiar to you for such websites have existed since the time of Web 1.0.
Typically these websites would have a search engine for users to enter criteria such as gender, age, locations and so on, along with advanced search functions to filter results based on specific terms like education, personal interests and hobbies. They are to provide friends making service with very specific targets.
Yet as we all know, friends making websites are constantly faced with the problem of retaining their users, so they need to budget for "buying" new users by means of advertisements. Website operators are very clear how much they need to spend to acquire a new user.
This is the destiny of friends making websites. Singles come to these websites to look for their Mr./Miss right and leave when they get the contact methods. There are even more people who invest two months leave disappointedly with no gain.
Typically, a user would first register at these friends making websites, enter their personal information such as interests, occupation or even income level, search for someone "with photos uploaded to the websites" and then attempt to start a talk. How likely can s/he succeed in building up relations in this way?
[+] Sharing common feelings is the first step to build up relations
When you search for a female aged 25-30 in the bustling downtown area, you would have some idea about what kind of figure and look she should have in your mind. When you finally find one, you may just come forward and ask to make friends with her. Yet this is not a very effective approach and you are very likely to be rejected.
Yet a tougher situation may be what you should do if you get a green light from her. Many men are hesitant to accost women not because they are afraid of being turned down but because they don't know "what to do next if they succeed." This is the problem friends making websites need to work out.
You need a reason to accost a stranger. Advanced search engines may provide users with specific results from, but at the end they still need to know "what they should do to make the first move." It does not promise a happy ending when accosting someone simply because you know what she looks like, her birthday, age, interests and occupation and so on.
This is why many friends making websites are thinking about providing Blog services. These operators find that matching service won't work by just relying on external criteria, which alone are not enough for developing relations.
In fact, personality may be a stronger factor when in comes to relations building. The key is how to present the personality of each user. Blog services may be a good idea - let users share their diaries online! You may be able to find something in common to start a talk with others by reading their blogs.
"Sharing common feelings" is the first step for users to build relations with each other and a good way to maintain relations.
[+] The issue of relations building for traditional online services
A friend who's running an online learning website for years asked me about Web 2.0 the other day. He sensed that this should be a trend and he was thinking to introduce online community features to his website. In addition, friends in the e-commerce business also wrote me about the same issue.
Still, we need to look at "relations!" What kinds of relations are there between the shoppers on a B2C shopping websites? Is it necessary to build up relations? What would lead to the first contact between them? What kind of relations would there be? Can such relations last for long?
"Relations" are the key that demands our attention when talking about Web 2.0, including online learning websites. As a matter of fact, online learning service providers may think it a good idea to build up online learning communities for their websites. Yet we are yet to see successful examples for such communities.
Similarly, we need to ask is there any need for students attending to the same class to establish relations? On what circumstances do they feel the need to do so? What about forming relations with lecturers? How long can the relations last? Only when the linkage between these questions is found can we expect the emergence of online communities.
The same logic can be applied to many other scenarios. For example, do the people looking for similar kind of jobs on job search websites have the need to establish relations? Do those who watch the same video online feel the desire to form relations? How can they do so and how the relations can be maintained?
Not all Web 2.0 services will have to provide social networking features, yet it is true that the establishment and maintenance of relations are the basis of Web 2.0. At the end of the day, it is surely helpful to spend more efforts in figuring out how relations come into being and what lies behind relations.
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Prev : Web 2.0 Think Again (2) Upper-class Society and Lower-class Society Next : Web 2.0 Think Again (4) "Private Property" and "Class Inequality"
- Today in History
Web 2.0 Think Again (3) A Reason to "accost" Someone Online - 2007/06/03
